Free MLB & NBA Picks by MarcDuck, 51 AI-Assisted Predictions for Thursday, July 9, 2026

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

10 plays · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Padres F5 First 5 Innings

ARI Diamondbacks @ SD Padres · 6:40 PM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Griffin Canning
WHY
- FIP edge +5.04 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.51 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.43 R
WIN % 68.7%±6.9%

EV +26.0%

STAKE 3.9u

-120
02 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Brewers ML Moneyline

MIL Brewers @ STL Cardinals · 4:45 PM PDT · Logan Henderson vs Andre Pallante
WHY
- FIP edge +1.74 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.44 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.68 R
WIN % 66.6%±7.7%

EV +19.5%

STAKE 0.9u

-126
03 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Braves ML Moneyline

ATL Braves @ PIT Pirates · 9:35 AM PDT · Bryce Elder vs Mitch Keller
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +1.23 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.88 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.44 R
WIN % 64.3%±10.0%

EV +20.3%

STAKE 0.2u

-115
04 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Red Sox ML Moneyline

BOS Red Sox @ CHW White Sox · 11:10 AM PDT · Patrick Sandoval vs Anthony Kay
WHY
- FIP edge +2.44 — your starter projects better
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.60 R
- Catcher framing +0.31 R
WIN % 60.6%±6.9%

EV +19.3%

STAKE 0.7u

-118
05 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Rangers ML Moneyline

LAA Angels @ TEX Rangers · 5:05 PM PDT · Reid Detmers vs Nathan Eovaldi
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.91 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.80 R
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
WIN % 68.7%±9.8%

EV +16.8%

STAKE 0.0u

-143
06 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Phillies F5 First 5 Innings

PHI Phillies @ CIN Reds · 4:10 PM PDT · Jesus Luzardo vs Brady Singer
WHY
- FIP edge +2.19 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.64 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.48 R
WIN % 61.8%±7.9%

EV +13.4%

STAKE 2.0u

-120
07 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB F5 Under 3.5 F5 Total

SEA Mariners @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Bryce Miller vs Janson Junk
WHY
- FIP edge +1.61 — your starter projects better
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.60 R
- Park factor 0.88 — pitcher-friendly
WIN % 59.2%±3.7%

EV +13.0%

STAKE 1.8u

-110
08 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Tigers ML Moneyline

ATH Athletics @ DET Tigers · 3:40 PM PDT · Jack Perkins vs Framber Valdez
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +0.71 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.72 R
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
WIN % 67.1%±8.5%

EV +14.0%

STAKE 0.0u

-143
09 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Orioles ML Moneyline

CHC Cubs @ BAL Orioles · 3:35 PM PDT · David Peterson vs Trevor Rogers
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +1.20 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.30 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.20 R
WIN % 63.2%±5.8%

EV +11.5%

STAKE 0.2u

-131
10 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Guardians ML Moneyline

CLE Guardians @ MIN Twins · 10:40 AM PDT · Gavin Williams vs Mike Paredes
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.28 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.41 R
WIN % 61.9%±3.7%

EV +9.2%

STAKE 0.4u

-131

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 2 of 2

11 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Royals F5 First 5 Innings

KC Royals @ NYM Mets · 10:10 AM PDT · Michael Wacha vs Sean Manaea
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.59 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.26 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.28 R
WIN % 58.7%±5.4%

EV +7.6%

STAKE 1.1u

-120
12 ★★★★☆
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MLB Mets ML Moneyline

KC Royals @ NYM Mets · 10:10 AM PDT · Michael Wacha vs Sean Manaea
WHY
- Catcher framing +0.26 R
WIN % 60.1%±5.4%

EV +0.4%

STAKE 0.0u

-149

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg

01 2-LEG PARLAY +243

MLB
SD F5 ARI @ SD
-120 68.7%

MLB
ATL ML ATL @ PIT
-115 64.3%

Combined Win % 44.2%

EV +51.4%

Payout (per $10) $34.28
02 2-LEG PARLAY +229

MLB
SD F5 ARI @ SD
-120 68.7%

MLB
MIL ML MIL @ STL
-126 66.6%

Combined Win % 45.8%

EV +50.5%

Payout (per $10) $32.88
03 3-LEG PARLAY +515

MLB
SD F5 ARI @ SD
-120 68.7%

MLB
ATL ML ATL @ PIT
-115 64.3%

MLB
MIL ML MIL @ STL
-126 66.6%

Combined Win % 29.4%

EV +80.9%

Payout (per $10) $61.48
04 3-LEG PARLAY +482

MLB
SD F5 ARI @ SD
-120 68.7%

MLB
ATL ML ATL @ PIT
-115 64.3%

MLB
TEX ML LAA @ TEX
-143 68.7%

Combined Win % 30.3%

EV +76.8%

Payout (per $10) $58.24

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Upcoming/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

THE PARLAYS

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology