Free MLB & NBA Picks by MarcDuck, 54 AI-Assisted Predictions for Monday, July 20, 2026

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

9 plays · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Braves F5 First 5 Innings

SD Padres @ ATL Braves · 4:15 PM PDT · JP Sears vs Bryce Elder
WHY
- FIP edge +2.19 — your starter projects better
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.82 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.92 R
WIN % 64.7%±4.3%

EV +18.6%

STAKE 2.8u

-120
02 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Cardinals ML Moneyline

STL Cardinals @ LAA Angels · 7:00 PM PDT · Kyle Leahy vs Jose Soriano
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.90 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.44 R
- Catcher framing +0.32 R
WIN % 59.6%±6.7%

EV +19.2%

STAKE 0.7u

-121
03 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Mariners F5 First 5 Innings

CIN Reds @ SEA Mariners · 6:40 PM PDT · Andrew Abbott vs George Kirby
WHY
- FIP edge +0.98 — your starter projects better
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.84 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.27 R
WIN % 63.4%±6.1%

EV +16.2%

STAKE 2.4u

-120
04 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Yankees ML Moneyline

PIT Pirates @ NYY Yankees · 4:05 PM PDT · Braxton Ashcraft vs Ryan Weathers
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.68 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.40 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.23 R
WIN % 64.8%±6.6%

EV +16.7%

STAKE 0.8u

-125
05 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Astros ML Moneyline

MIA Marlins @ HOU Astros · 5:10 PM PDT · Janson Junk vs Ronel Blanco
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.80 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.61 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.45 R
WIN % 66.3%±5.4%

EV +13.1%

STAKE 0.7u

-142
06 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Blue Jays ML Moneyline

TB Rays @ TOR Blue Jays · 4:07 PM PDT · Nick Martinez vs Dylan Cease
WHY
- FIP edge +1.96 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.44 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.23 R
WIN % 65.9%±5.3%

EV +12.3%

STAKE 0.6u

-142
07 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Brewers ML Moneyline

NYM Mets @ MIL Brewers · 4:40 PM PDT · Freddy Peralta vs Jacob Misiorowski
WHY
- FIP edge +1.07 — your starter projects better
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.42 R
- Catcher framing +0.27 R
WIN % 71.1%±4.4%

EV +9.1%

STAKE 0.6u

-187
08 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Twins ML Moneyline

MIN Twins @ CLE Guardians · 3:40 PM PDT · Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.74 R
WIN % 60.2%±4.6%

EV +10.0%

STAKE 0.2u

-121
09 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Rangers ML Moneyline

CHW White Sox @ TEX Rangers · 5:05 PM PDT · Erick Fedde vs Jacob deGrom
WHY
- FIP edge +1.70 — your starter projects better
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.96 R
- Catcher framing +0.20 R
WIN % 66.7%±4.4%

EV +5.5%

STAKE 0.0u

-172

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 3 of 3

10 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Red Sox F5 First 5 Innings

BAL Orioles @ BOS Red Sox · 4:10 PM PDT · Shane Baz vs Payton Tolle
WHY
- FIP edge +0.97 — your starter projects better
- Defense (OAA) +0.44 R
- Recent form 10-0 (last 10)
WIN % 62.6%±3.2%

EV +14.8%

STAKE 2.2u

-120
11 ★★★☆☆
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MLB Orioles +1.5 Run Line

BAL Orioles @ BOS Red Sox · 4:10 PM PDT · Shane Baz vs Payton Tolle
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +0.79 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.75 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.37 R
WIN % 62.3%±3.2%

EV +-3.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-180
12 ★★★★☆
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MLB Red Sox ML Moneyline

BAL Orioles @ BOS Red Sox · 4:10 PM PDT · Shane Baz vs Payton Tolle
WHY
- FIP edge +0.97 — your starter projects better
- Defense (OAA) +0.44 R
- Recent form 10-0 (last 10)
WIN % 56.2%±3.2%

EV +-4.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-142

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg

01 2-LEG PARLAY +230

MLB
ATL F5 SD @ ATL
-120 64.7%

MLB
NYY ML PIT @ NYY
-125 64.8%

Combined Win % 41.9%

EV +38.4%

Payout (per $10) $33.00
02 2-LEG PARLAY +236

MLB
ATL F5 SD @ ATL
-120 64.7%

MLB
SEA F5 CIN @ SEA
-120 63.4%

Combined Win % 41.0%

EV +37.9%

Payout (per $10) $33.61
03 3-LEG PARLAY +505

MLB
ATL F5 SD @ ATL
-120 64.7%

MLB
NYY ML PIT @ NYY
-125 64.8%

MLB
SEA F5 CIN @ SEA
-120 63.4%

Combined Win % 26.6%

EV +60.8%

Payout (per $10) $60.50
04 3-LEG PARLAY +505

MLB
ATL F5 SD @ ATL
-120 64.7%

MLB
NYY ML PIT @ NYY
-125 64.8%

MLB
BOS F5 BAL @ BOS
-120 62.6%

Combined Win % 26.2%

EV +58.8%

Payout (per $10) $60.50

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Upcoming/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

THE PARLAYS

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology