Free MLB & NBA Picks by MarcDuck, 56 AI-Assisted Predictions for Tuesday, July 21, 2026

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

6 plays · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Braves ML Moneyline

SD Padres @ ATL Braves · 4:15 PM PDT · Walker Buehler vs Reynaldo Lopez
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.82 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.57 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.40 R
WIN % 67.6%±6.0%

EV +14.3%

STAKE 0.8u

-145
02 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Brewers ML Moneyline

NYM Mets @ MIL Brewers · 4:40 PM PDT · Zac Thornton vs Brandon Sproat
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.42 R
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.45 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
WIN % 67.8%±5.6%

EV +13.4%

STAKE 0.7u

-149
03 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Yankees ML Moneyline

PIT Pirates @ NYY Yankees · 4:05 PM PDT · Bubba Chandler vs Will Warren
WHY
- FIP edge +2.69 — your starter projects better
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.88 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.40 R
WIN % 67.0%±5.0%

EV +11.9%

STAKE 0.7u

-149
04 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Rays ML Moneyline

TB Rays @ TOR Blue Jays · 4:07 PM PDT · Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +0.73 R
- Catcher framing +0.52 R
WIN % 60.1%±5.0%

EV +12.4%

STAKE 0.4u

-115
05 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Giants ML Moneyline

SF Giants @ KC Royals · 4:40 PM PDT · Tyler Mahle vs Luinder Avila
WHY
- Catcher framing +0.58 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.15 R
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.21 R
WIN % 58.1%±4.5%

EV +12.3%

STAKE 0.5u

-113
06 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Astros ML Moneyline

MIA Marlins @ HOU Astros · 5:10 PM PDT · Tyler Phillips vs Tatsuya Imai
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.80 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.61 R
- Catcher framing +0.40 R
WIN % 63.0%±3.9%

EV +9.7%

STAKE 0.5u

-135

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 6 of 6

07 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Reds F5 First 5 Innings

CIN Reds @ SEA Mariners · 6:40 PM PDT · Chase Burns vs Luis Castillo
WHY
- FIP edge +1.16 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.58 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.34 R
WIN % 62.8%±5.1%

EV +15.2%

STAKE 2.3u

-120
08 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Angels F5 First 5 Innings

STL Cardinals @ LAA Angels · 6:38 PM PDT · Matthew Liberatore vs Walbert Urena
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.44 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.42 R
WIN % 62.0%±2.5%

EV +13.6%

STAKE 2.0u

-120
09 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Mariners ML Moneyline

CIN Reds @ SEA Mariners · 6:40 PM PDT · Chase Burns vs Luis Castillo
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.97 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.27 R
- Catcher framing +0.32 R
WIN % 55.1%±5.1%

EV +3.4%

STAKE 0.0u

-114
10 ★★★★☆
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MLB Cardinals ML Moneyline

STL Cardinals @ LAA Angels · 6:38 PM PDT · Matthew Liberatore vs Walbert Urena
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +1.20 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
- Catcher framing +0.32 R
WIN % 55.0%±2.5%

EV +3.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-114
11 ★★★☆☆
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MLB Angels +1.5 Run Line

STL Cardinals @ LAA Angels · 6:38 PM PDT · Matthew Liberatore vs Walbert Urena
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.44 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.42 R
WIN % 61.7%±2.5%

EV +-4.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-180
12 ★★★☆☆
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MLB Reds +1.5 Run Line

CIN Reds @ SEA Mariners · 6:40 PM PDT · Chase Burns vs Luis Castillo
WHY
- FIP edge +1.16 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.58 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.34 R
WIN % 61.1%±5.1%

EV +-5.0%

STAKE 0.0u

-180

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg

01 2-LEG PARLAY +210

MLB
ATL ML SD @ ATL
-145 67.6%

MLB
CIN F5 CIN @ SEA
-120 62.8%

Combined Win % 42.5%

EV +31.5%

Payout (per $10) $30.98
02 2-LEG PARLAY +236

MLB
CIN F5 CIN @ SEA
-120 62.8%

MLB
LAA F5 STL @ LAA
-120 62.0%

Combined Win % 38.9%

EV +30.9%

Payout (per $10) $33.61
03 3-LEG PARLAY +468

MLB
ATL ML SD @ ATL
-145 67.6%

MLB
CIN F5 CIN @ SEA
-120 62.8%

MLB
LAA F5 STL @ LAA
-120 62.0%

Combined Win % 26.3%

EV +49.5%

Payout (per $10) $56.79
04 3-LEG PARLAY +418

MLB
ATL ML SD @ ATL
-145 67.6%

MLB
MIL ML NYM @ MIL
-149 67.8%

MLB
CIN F5 CIN @ SEA
-120 62.8%

Combined Win % 28.8%

EV +49.0%

Payout (per $10) $51.77

Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card

56 MLB · 0 NBA

Season Record

642-551-20

53.8% win rate since 2026-04-22

Lock Pick Win %

39-21

65.0% on locks (60 graded)

Last 10

6-4

-0.7u last 10

Streak

current run

Confidence Avg

54%

model blend

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Upcoming/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

THE PARLAYS

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology