Free MLB & NBA Picks by MarcDuck, 47 AI-Assisted Predictions for Monday, July 27, 2026

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

10 plays · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Pirates F5 First 5 Innings

ARI Diamondbacks @ PIT Pirates · 3:40 PM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Mitch Keller
WHY
- FIP edge +2.45 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.83 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.18 R
WIN % 69.2%±7.8%

EV +26.9%

STAKE 4.0u

-120
02 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Nationals F5 First 5 Innings

TOR Blue Jays @ WSH Nationals · 3:45 PM PDT · Max Scherzer vs Andrew Alvarez
WHY
- FIP edge +6.01 — your starter projects better
- Recent form 6-4 (last 10)
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.23 R
WIN % 69.2%±3.8%

EV +26.9%

STAKE 4.0u

-120
03 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Orioles ML Moneyline

BAL Orioles @ DET Tigers · 3:40 PM PDT · Kyle Bradish vs Keider Montero
WHY
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.36 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.36 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.22 R
WIN % 59.0%±5.9%

EV +16.3%

STAKE 0.6u

-118
04 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Braves ML Moneyline

ATL Braves @ NYM Mets · 4:10 PM PDT · Martin Perez vs Zac Thornton
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.98 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.80 R
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
WIN % 62.3%±5.9%

EV +15.5%

STAKE 0.7u

-117
05 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Mariners F5 First 5 Innings

SEA Mariners @ TEX Rangers · 11:35 AM PDT · George Kirby vs Kumar Rocker
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +1.72 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.98 R
- Catcher framing +0.31 R
WIN % 61.8%±8.9%

EV +13.2%

STAKE 2.0u

-120
06 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Yankees ML Moneyline

NYY Yankees @ CHW White Sox · 4:40 PM PDT · Max Fried vs Noah Schultz
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +2.12 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.57 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.29 R
WIN % 68.8%±10.0%

EV +15.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-148
07 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Angels F5 First 5 Innings

HOU Astros @ LAA Angels · 6:38 PM PDT · Tatsuya Imai vs Walbert Urena
WHY
- FIP edge +2.27 — your starter projects better
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.49 R
WIN % 60.2%±3.5%

EV +10.4%

STAKE 1.6u

-120
08 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Phillies ML Moneyline

PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Zack Wheeler vs Tyler Phillips
WHY
- FIP edge +1.68 — your starter projects better
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.12 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.76 R
WIN % 71.9%±8.1%

EV +11.7%

STAKE 0.0u

-181
09 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Red Sox ML Moneyline

BOS Red Sox @ ATH Athletics · 6:40 PM PDT · Payton Tolle vs Jack Perkins
WHY
- FIP edge +0.93 — your starter projects better
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.71 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.72 R
WIN % 70.3%±6.5%

EV +8.9%

STAKE 0.0u

-182
10 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Brewers ML Moneyline

MIL Brewers @ SF Giants · 6:45 PM PDT · Brandon Sproat vs Tyler Mahle
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.43 R
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.24 R
WIN % 62.6%±3.8%

EV +6.4%

STAKE 0.0u

-143

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 7 of 7

11 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Reds F5 First 5 Innings

CLE Guardians @ CIN Reds · 4:00 PM PDT · Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns
WHY
- FIP edge +1.53 — your starter projects better
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.48 R
- Recent form 6-4 (last 10)
WIN % 63.0%±1.5%

EV +15.4%

STAKE 2.3u

-120
12 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Cubs F5 First 5 Innings

CHC Cubs @ STL Cardinals · 4:45 PM PDT · David Peterson vs Matthew Liberatore
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.56 R
- FIP edge +0.56 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.21 R
WIN % 56.5%±4.2%

EV +3.6%

STAKE 0.5u

-120
13 ★★★★☆
@

MLB Cubs ML Moneyline

CHC Cubs @ STL Cardinals · 4:45 PM PDT · David Peterson vs Matthew Liberatore
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.56 R
- FIP edge +0.56 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.21 R
WIN % 55.3%±4.2%

EV +0.6%

STAKE 0.0u

-122
14 ★★★★☆
@

MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total

CHC Cubs @ STL Cardinals · 4:45 PM PDT · David Peterson vs Matthew Liberatore
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.56 R
- FIP edge +0.56 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.21 R
WIN % 50.9%±4.2%

EV +-2.9%

STAKE 0.0u

-110
15 ★★★★☆
@

MLB Reds ML Moneyline

CLE Guardians @ CIN Reds · 4:00 PM PDT · Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns
WHY
- FIP edge +1.53 — your starter projects better
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.48 R
- Recent form 6-4 (last 10)
WIN % 61.7%±1.5%

EV +-3.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-175
16 ★★★☆☆
@

MLB Cardinals +1.5 Run Line

CHC Cubs @ STL Cardinals · 4:45 PM PDT · David Peterson vs Matthew Liberatore
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +1.49 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.38 R
- Catcher framing +0.20 R
WIN % 61.0%±4.2%

EV +-5.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-180
17 ★★★☆☆
@

MLB Guardians +1.5 Run Line

CLE Guardians @ CIN Reds · 4:00 PM PDT · Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.50 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.28 R
- Catcher framing +0.16 R
WIN % 60.3%±1.5%

EV +-6.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-180

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg

01 2-LEG PARLAY +236

MLB
PIT F5 ARI @ PIT
-120 69.2%

MLB
WSH F5 TOR @ WSH
-120 69.2%

Combined Win % 47.9%

EV +61.0%

Payout (per $10) $33.61
02 2-LEG PARLAY +240

MLB
PIT F5 ARI @ PIT
-120 69.2%

MLB
ATL ML ATL @ NYM
-117 62.3%

Combined Win % 43.1%

EV +46.6%

Payout (per $10) $34.00
03 3-LEG PARLAY +523

MLB
PIT F5 ARI @ PIT
-120 69.2%

MLB
WSH F5 TOR @ WSH
-120 69.2%

MLB
ATL ML ATL @ NYM
-117 62.3%

Combined Win % 29.8%

EV +86.0%

Payout (per $10) $62.34
04 3-LEG PARLAY +516

MLB
PIT F5 ARI @ PIT
-120 69.2%

MLB
WSH F5 TOR @ WSH
-120 69.2%

MLB
CIN F5 CLE @ CIN
-120 63.0%

Combined Win % 30.2%

EV +85.9%

Payout (per $10) $61.62

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Today's/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

THE PARLAYS

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology