Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.

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Upcoming/Picks

By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick

MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 4:00 PM PST

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

1 play · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

NBA Pistons ML Moneyline

PHI 76ers @ DET Pistons · 4:00 PM PST · Net +5.8 · Net +11.6
WHY
- Net rating edge +5.8
WIN % 64.7%±8.4%

EV —

STAKE —

—

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 2 of 2

02 ★★★★☆ LOCK

@

NBA Mavericks +12.5 Spread

DAL Mavericks @ SAS Spurs · 6:30 PM PST · Net -0.0 · Net +0.0

WIN % 55.4%±3.3%

EV +5.7%

STAKE 0.8u

-110
03 ★★★★☆
@

NBA Timberwolves +9.5 Spread

MIN Timberwolves @ HOU Rockets · 5:30 PM PST · Net +11.4 · Net +12.9
WHY
- Top-10 offense (120.2 ORtg)
WIN % 52.2%±1.3%

EV +-0.4%

STAKE 0.0u

-110

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg

01 2-LEG PARLAY +264

NBA
DET RL PHI @ DET
-110 57.0%

NBA
DAL RL DAL @ SAS
-110 55.4%

Combined Win % 31.6%

EV +15.1%

Payout (per $10) $36.45
02 2-LEG PARLAY +264

NBA
DET RL PHI @ DET
-110 57.0%

NBA
BKN RL CHA @ BKN
-110 54.7%

Combined Win % 31.2%

EV +13.6%

Payout (per $10) $36.45
03 3-LEG PARLAY +596

NBA
DET RL PHI @ DET
-110 57.0%

NBA
DAL RL DAL @ SAS
-110 55.4%

NBA
BKN RL CHA @ BKN
-110 54.7%

Combined Win % 17.3%

EV +20.2%

Payout (per $10) $69.58
04 3-LEG PARLAY +596

NBA
DET RL PHI @ DET
-110 57.0%

NBA
DAL RL DAL @ SAS
-110 55.4%

NBA
MIN RL MIN @ HOU
-110 52.2%

Combined Win % 16.5%

EV +14.7%

Payout (per $10) $69.58

Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card

0 MLB · 19 NBA

Season Record

720-595-22

54.8% win rate since 2026-04-22

Lock Pick Win %

43-22

66.2% on locks (65 graded)

Last 10

6-4

+2.2u last 10

Streak

current run

Confidence Avg

48%

model blend

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Upcoming/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

THE PARLAYS

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology