Bookie Bullies
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Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
Today's Card · Locked In

Today's/Picks

By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick
MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 4:00 PM PST
Stake Calculator 1u = 1% of bankroll · 1/8-Kelly recommendations
$ bankroll
1u = $10

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

5 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    CBB W Illinois +9.5 Spread
    CSUB Bakersfield @ WIU W Illinois · 4:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 7.6 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 63.5%
    EV +20.3%
    STAKE 2.0u
    -112
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    CBB West Florida +7.5 Spread
    UWF West Florida @ AAMU Alabama A&M · 5:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 5.0 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 59.0%
    EV +15.2%
    STAKE 2.0u
    -105
  3. 03 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    CBB Oklahoma St +7.5 Spread
    OKST Oklahoma St @ TA&M Texas A&M · 5:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 5.3 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 59.5%
    EV +14.6%
    STAKE 2.0u
    -108
  4. 04 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    NBA Under 214.5 Total
    CHA Hornets @ PHX Suns · 6:00 PM PST · Net -12.9 · Net -5.3
    WHY
    • Net rating edge +7.6
    WIN % 57.4%±4.9%
    EV +9.5%
    STAKE 1.3u
    -110
  5. 05 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    NBA Timberwolves ML Moneyline
    DAL Mavericks @ MIN Timberwolves · 5:00 PM PST · Net +5.9 · Net +10.6
    WHY
    • Net rating edge +4.7
    • Top-10 offense (119.3 ORtg)
    WIN % 73.9%±5.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 4 of 4
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 06 ★★★★☆
    @
    CBB LMU -1.5 Spread
    LMU LMU @ USA South Alabama · 5:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 3.6 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 56.6%
    EV +14.3%
    STAKE 1.8u
    +102
  2. 07 ★★★★☆
    @
    CBB UC Riverside +8.5 Spread
    UCR UC Riverside @ SJSU San José St · 7:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 3.8 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 56.9%
    EV +6.4%
    STAKE 0.9u
    -115
  3. 08 ★★★★☆
    @
    CBB Purdue FW +3.5 Spread
    WMU W Michigan @ PFW Purdue FW · 4:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 3.3 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 55.9%
    EV +5.9%
    STAKE 0.8u
    -112
  4. 09 ★★★☆☆
    @
    CBB Sacred Heart -4.5 Spread
    CCSU C Connecticut @ SHU Sacred Heart · 4:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 2.6 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 54.7%
    EV +2.2%
    STAKE 0.5u
    -115

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg
  1. 01 2-LEG PARLAY +264
    NBA
    Under 214.5 CHA @ PHX
    -110 57.4%
    NBA
    TOR RL TOR @ PHI
    -110 57.3%
    Combined Win % 32.9%
    EV +19.9%
    Payout (per $10) $36.45
  2. 02 2-LEG PARLAY +264
    NBA
    Under 214.5 CHA @ PHX
    -110 57.4%
    NBA
    Over 222.5 DET @ WAS
    -110 57.3%
    Combined Win % 32.9%
    EV +19.9%
    Payout (per $10) $36.45
  3. 03 3-LEG PARLAY +596
    NBA
    Under 214.5 CHA @ PHX
    -110 57.4%
    NBA
    TOR RL TOR @ PHI
    -110 57.3%
    NBA
    Over 222.5 DET @ WAS
    -110 57.3%
    Combined Win % 18.8%
    EV +31.1%
    Payout (per $10) $69.58
  4. 04 3-LEG PARLAY +596
    NBA
    Under 214.5 CHA @ PHX
    -110 57.4%
    NBA
    MIN RL DAL @ MIN
    -110 54.3%
    NBA
    TOR RL TOR @ PHI
    -110 57.3%
    Combined Win % 17.9%
    EV +24.3%
    Payout (per $10) $69.58

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
10
0 MLB · 10 NBA
Season Record
783-635-22
55.2% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
60-34
63.8% on locks (94 graded)
Last 10
6-4
+0.5u last 10
Streak
L1
current run
Confidence Avg
60%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology