Bookie Bullies
Bookie BulliesMLB + NBA · Daily Picks
Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
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Upcoming/Picks

By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick
MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 4:00 PM PST
Stake Calculator 1u = 1% of bankroll · 1/8-Kelly recommendations
$ bankroll
1u = $10

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

3 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    CBB Northwestern +1.5 Spread
    DEP DePaul @ NU Northwestern · 6:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 6.6 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 61.8%
    EV +20.6%
    STAKE 2.0u
    -105
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    CBB Clemson -3.5 Spread
    GTWN Georgetown @ CLEM Clemson · 3:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 6.2 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 61.2%
    EV +16.8%
    STAKE 2.0u
    -110
  3. 03 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    CBB North Carolina ML Moneyline
    UGA Georgia @ UNC North Carolina · 4:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • 6.9% edge over the price
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 68.9%
    EV +6.1%
    STAKE 1.4u
    -185

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 8 of 8
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 04 ★★★★☆
    @
    CBB Maryland +6.5 Spread
    UVA Virginia @ MD Maryland · 5:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 3.9 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 57.0%
    EV +8.7%
    STAKE 1.2u
    -110
  2. 05 ★★★★☆
    @
    CBB App State +8.5 Spread
    APP App State @ CLT Charlotte · 4:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 3.8 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 56.9%
    EV +8.7%
    STAKE 1.2u
    -110
  3. 06 ★★★★☆
    @
    CBB Auburn +2.5 Spread
    ARIZ Arizona @ AUB Auburn · 6:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 4.3 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 57.8%
    EV +8.1%
    STAKE 1.2u
    -115
  4. 07 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    NBA Cavaliers +1.5 Spread
    CLE Cavaliers @ MIA Heat · 5:00 PM PST · Net +2.1 · Net -3.4
    WHY
    • Net rating edge +5.5
    • Top-10 offense (117.6 ORtg)
    WIN % 56.3%±6.1%
    EV +7.5%
    STAKE 1.0u
    -110
  5. 08 ★★★★☆
    @
    CBB Saint Mary's -4.5 Spread
    UIC UIC @ SMC Saint Mary's · 7:00 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 3.6 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 56.4%
    EV +4.2%
    STAKE 0.6u
    -118
  6. 09 ★★★☆☆
    @
    CBB Pitt +3.5 Spread
    PITT Pitt @ BTLR Butler · 3:30 PM PST · College Hoops · beta
    WHY
    • Model and line disagree by 2.6 points
    • College hoops model in beta: ESPN predictor blended with the market
    WIN % 54.8%
    EV +5.5%
    STAKE 0.7u
    -108
  7. 10 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Over 221.5 Total
    NYK Knicks @ IND Pacers · 4:00 PM PST · Net +0.0 · Net -3.1
    WHY
    • Net rating edge +3.1
    WIN % 53.8%±1.8%
    EV +2.7%
    STAKE 0.4u
    -110
  8. 11 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Pacers +6.5 Spread
    NYK Knicks @ IND Pacers · 4:00 PM PST · Net +0.0 · Net -3.1
    WIN % 52.6%±1.8%
    EV +0.5%
    STAKE 0.1u
    -110

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
12
0 MLB · 12 NBA
Season Record
783-635-22
55.2% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
60-34
63.8% on locks (94 graded)
Last 10
6-4
+0.5u last 10
Streak
L1
current run
Confidence Avg
45%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology