Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
Today's Card · Locked In

Today's/Picks & Analysis

MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 10:05 AM PDT
Stake Calculator 1u = 1% of bankroll · 1/8-Kelly recommendations
$ bankroll
1u = $10

THE LOCKS

Top picks: model gives at least 60% chance of winning. All sports (MLB, NBA, NHL). Green EV = good price. Red EV = model likes them but the market priced it sharp.

7 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Guardians ML Moneyline
    LAA Angels @ CLE Guardians · 10:10 AM PDT · Reid Detmers vs Parker Messick
    MODEL LAA 2 · CLE 4 · 6 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 65.8% win probability at the offered -158. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +7.4% per dollar. Stake 0.5u at 1/8-Kelly.

    Pitching Matchup Reid Detmers ERA 4.33 vs Parker Messick ERA 2.30
    Top Drivers
    • FIP edge +0.83 — your starter projects better
    • SP career vs opp team +0.48 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.16 R
    WIN % 65.8%±6.0%
    EV +7.4%
    STAKE 0.5u
    -158
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Dodgers ML Moneyline
    SF Giants @ LAD Dodgers · 7:10 PM PDT · Robbie Ray vs Shohei Ohtani
    MODEL SF 2 · LAD 5 · 7 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 73.4% win probability at the offered -246. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +3.2% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.

    Pitching Matchup Robbie Ray ERA 2.76 vs Shohei Ohtani ERA 0.97
    Top Drivers
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.20 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.90 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.86 R
    WIN % 73.4%±5.5%
    EV +3.2%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -246
  3. 03 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Brewers ML Moneyline
    SD Padres @ MIL Brewers · 4:40 PM PDT · Michael King vs Jacob Misiorowski
    MODEL SD 2 · MIL 4 · 6 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 63.7% win probability at the offered -156. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +4.6% per dollar. Stake 0.3u at 1/8-Kelly.

    Pitching Matchup Michael King ERA 2.76 vs Jacob Misiorowski ERA 2.45
    Top Drivers
    • FIP edge +1.63 — your starter projects better
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.49 R
    • Catcher framing +0.45 R
    WIN % 63.7%±3.6%
    EV +4.6%
    STAKE 0.3u
    -156
  4. 04 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Yankees ML Moneyline
    NYY Yankees @ BAL Orioles · 10:05 AM PDT · Max Fried vs Kyle Bradish
    MODEL NYY 5 · BAL 3 · 9 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 64.9% win probability at the offered -171. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +2.9% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.

    Pitching Matchup Max Fried ERA 2.91 vs Kyle Bradish ERA 4.83
    Top Drivers
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.61 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.28 R
    • Catcher framing +0.16 R
    WIN % 64.9%±6.9%
    EV +2.9%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -171
  5. 05 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Pirates ML Moneyline
    COL Rockies @ PIT Pirates · 3:40 PM PDT · Jose Quintana vs Mitch Keller
    MODEL COL 4 · PIT 5 · 9 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 64.0% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -186, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.

    Pitching Matchup Jose Quintana ERA 3.90 vs Mitch Keller ERA 2.87
    Top Drivers
    • FIP edge +2.06 — your starter projects better
    • Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.21 R
    WIN % 64.0%
    EV -1.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -186
  6. 06 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    NBA Pistons ML Moneyline
    CLE Cavaliers @ DET Pistons · 5:00 PM PDT · Net +5.4 · Net +9.6
    MODEL CLE 117 · DET 122 · 239 total pts
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 63.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -180, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.

    Top Drivers
    • Net rating edge +4.1
    • Top-10 offense (119.0 ORtg)
    WIN % 63.1%±2.2%
    EV -1.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  7. 07 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    NHL Avalanche ML Moneyline
    MIN Minnesota Wild @ COL Colorado Avalanche · Scheduled · 3.32/2.93 · 3.68/2.48
    MODEL MIN 3 · COL 4 · 6 total goals
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 65.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -230, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.

    WIN % 65.9%±1.3%
    EV -5.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -230

THE CARD

Every game on today's slate. Stars show model win-probability confidence: 5★ ≥ 65%, 4★ ≥ 60%, 3★ ≥ 55%, 2★ ≥ 50%. Click "Why this pick" on any row.

Showing 10 of 10
+EV = bet has positive expected value. Take it. −EV = model favors this team but the market priced it correctly. Pass. What is EV? →
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 08 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Marlins ML Moneyline
    MIA Marlins @ MIN Twins · 4:40 PM PDT · Max Meyer vs Simeon Woods Richardson
    MODEL MIA 6 · MIN 4 · 10 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 59.5% win probability at the offered -126. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +6.7% per dollar. Stake 0.2u at 1/8-Kelly.

    Pitching Matchup Max Meyer ERA 2.79 vs Simeon Woods Richardson ERA 6.92
    Top Drivers
    • FIP edge +1.92 — your starter projects better
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +1.08 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.56 R
    WIN % 59.5%±6.1%
    EV +6.7%
    STAKE 0.2u
    -126
  2. 09 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Over 10.5 Total
    WSH Nationals @ CIN Reds · 3:40 PM PDT · Jake Irvin vs Nick Lodolo
    MODEL WSH 5 · CIN 6 · 11 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 55.6% win probability at the offered -110. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +6.2% per dollar. Stake 0.8u at 1/8-Kelly.

    Pitching Matchup Jake Irvin ERA 5.22 vs Nick Lodolo ERA 6.75
    Top Drivers
    • SP career vs opp team +0.49 R
    • Park factor 1.10 — hitter-friendly
    • Defense (OAA) +0.40 R
    WIN % 55.6%±4.3%
    EV +6.2%
    STAKE 0.8u
    -110
  3. 10 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Royals ML Moneyline
    KC Royals @ CHW White Sox · 4:40 PM PDT · Seth Lugo vs Noah Schultz
    MODEL KC 5 · CHW 3 · 8 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 56.7% win probability at the offered -115. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +5.9% per dollar. Stake 0.4u at 1/8-Kelly.

    Pitching Matchup Seth Lugo ERA 3.21 vs Noah Schultz ERA 4.68
    Top Drivers
    • SP career vs opp team +0.69 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.80 R
    • FIP edge +0.49 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 56.7%±3.4%
    EV +5.9%
    STAKE 0.4u
    -115
  4. 11 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Red Sox ML Moneyline
    PHI Phillies @ BOS Red Sox · 3:45 PM PDT · Andrew Painter vs Sonny Gray
    MODEL PHI 4 · BOS 5 · 9 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 57.7% win probability at the offered -131. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.7% per dollar. Stake 0.2u at 1/8-Kelly.

    Pitching Matchup Andrew Painter ERA 6.89 vs Sonny Gray ERA 3.54
    Top Drivers
    • FIP edge +1.46 — your starter projects better
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.60 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.52 R
    WIN % 57.7%±0.8%
    EV +1.7%
    STAKE 0.2u
    -131
  5. 12 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Mariners ML Moneyline
    SEA Mariners @ HOU Astros · 5:10 PM PDT · Bryce Miller vs Lance McCullers Jr.
    MODEL SEA 6 · HOU 5 · 10 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 56.9% win probability at the offered -131. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +0.4% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.

    Pitching Matchup Bryce Miller ERA — vs Lance McCullers Jr. ERA 7.41
    Top Drivers
    • SP career vs opp team +0.71 R
    WIN % 56.9%±0.5%
    EV +0.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -131
  6. 13 ★★☆☆☆
    @
    MLB Tigers ML Moneyline
    DET Tigers @ NYM Mets · 4:10 PM PDT · Framber Valdez vs Christian Scott
    MODEL DET 4 · NYM 3 · 7 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 52.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -112, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.

    Pitching Matchup Framber Valdez ERA 4.57 vs Christian Scott ERA 3.27
    Top Drivers
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.74 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.29 R
    WIN % 52.5%±0.5%
    EV -0.6%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -112
  7. 14 ★★☆☆☆
    @
    MLB Diamondbacks ML Moneyline
    ARI Diamondbacks @ TEX Rangers · 5:05 PM PDT · Ryne Nelson vs Kumar Rocker
    MODEL ARI 5 · TEX 4 · 8 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 51.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -110, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.

    Pitching Matchup Ryne Nelson ERA 5.68 vs Kumar Rocker ERA 5.01
    Top Drivers
    • Defense (OAA) +0.32 R
    • Catcher framing +0.26 R
    WIN % 51.8%±1.1%
    EV -1.2%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  8. 15 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Athletics ML Moneyline
    STL Cardinals @ ATH Athletics · 6:40 PM PDT · Matthew Liberatore vs J.T. Ginn
    MODEL STL 4 · ATH 5 · 10 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 58.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -149, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.

    Pitching Matchup Matthew Liberatore ERA 4.07 vs J.T. Ginn ERA 3.62
    Top Drivers
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.37 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.32 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.30 R
    WIN % 58.3%±3.1%
    EV -2.6%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -149
  9. 16 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Blue Jays ML Moneyline
    TB Rays @ TOR Blue Jays · 4:07 PM PDT · Griffin Jax vs Dylan Cease
    MODEL TB 3 · TOR 4 · 7 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 57.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -149, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.

    Pitching Matchup Griffin Jax ERA 5.00 vs Dylan Cease ERA 2.58
    Top Drivers
    • FIP edge +2.06 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.28 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.26 R
    WIN % 57.8%±3.5%
    EV -3.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -149
  10. 17 ★★☆☆☆
    @
    MLB Cubs ML Moneyline
    CHC Cubs @ ATL Braves · 4:15 PM PDT · Shota Imanaga vs JR Ritchie
    MODEL CHC 5 · ATL 4 · 9 total runs
    Why this pick

    The model gives this pick a 53.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -136, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -7.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.

    Pitching Matchup Shota Imanaga ERA 2.28 vs JR Ritchie ERA 3.63
    Top Drivers
    • FIP edge +0.86 — your starter projects better
    • Defense (OAA) +0.20 R
    WIN % 53.4%±5.1%
    EV -7.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -136

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg
  1. 01 2-LEG PARLAY +193
    MLB
    CLE ML LAA @ CLE
    -158 65.8%
    MLB
    MIA ML MIA @ MIN
    -126 59.5%
    Combined Win % 39.2%
    EV +14.7%
    Payout (per $10) $29.29
  2. 02 2-LEG PARLAY +212
    MLB
    Over 10.5 WSH @ CIN
    -110 55.6%
    MLB
    CLE ML LAA @ CLE
    -158 65.8%
    Combined Win % 36.6%
    EV +14.0%
    Payout (per $10) $31.17
  3. 03 3-LEG PARLAY +459
    MLB
    Over 10.5 WSH @ CIN
    -110 55.6%
    MLB
    CLE ML LAA @ CLE
    -158 65.8%
    MLB
    MIA ML MIA @ MIN
    -126 59.5%
    Combined Win % 21.8%
    EV +21.7%
    Payout (per $10) $55.91
  4. 04 3-LEG PARLAY +448
    MLB
    CLE ML LAA @ CLE
    -158 65.8%
    MLB
    MIA ML MIA @ MIN
    -126 59.5%
    MLB
    KC ML KC @ CHW
    -115 56.7%
    Combined Win % 22.2%
    EV +21.6%
    Payout (per $10) $54.76

Every Game · Full Detail

All matchups today with our pick, the projected score, both starting pitchers, and the market line. Filter or search below.

Showing 0 of 0 · today's slate
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
56
53 MLB · 1 NBA
Season Record
143-120-5
54.4% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
34-15
69.4% on locks (49 graded)
Last 10
4-6
last 10 graded
Streak
L3
current run
Confidence Avg
55%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.